A company is considering the expansion of its current facility to meet increasing demand. A major expansion would cost $500,000, while a minor expansion would cost $200,000. If demand is high in the future, the major expansion would result in an additional profit of $800,000, but if demand is low, then there would be a loss of $500,000. If demand is high, the minor expansion will result in an increase in profits of $200,000, but if demand is low, then there is a loss of $100,000. The company has the option of not expanding. For what probability of a high demand will the company be indifferent between the two expansion alternatives?
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Let's denote the probability of high demand as P.
For the major expansion:
If demand is high, additional profit = $800,000
If demand is low, loss = -$500,000
The expected value (EV) of the major expansion = P x 80,000 + (1 - P) x (-50,000)
For the minor expansion:
If demand is high, additional profit = $200,000
If demand is low, loss = -$100,000
The expected value (EV) of the major expansion = P x 2,00,000 + (1 - P) x (-1,00,000)
The company is indifferent between the two options when the expected values are equal:
P × 800,000 + (1 - P) x (-50,000) = P x 2,00,000 + (1 - P) x (-1,00,000)
Let's solve for P:
800,000 P − 500,000 + 500,000 P = 200,000 P − 100,000 + 100,000
800,000 P + 500,000 P = 200,000 P+100,000
1,300,000 P = 200,000 P + 100,000
1,100,000 P =100,000
P = 1,00,000 / 11,00,000
P = 0.0909
Therefore, the company would be indifferent between the major and minor expansions if the probability of high demand is approximately 0.0909, or roughly 9.09%.